Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Gloomy damn lies

Whenever I hear someone making suspicious claims, it's easy to ask for the numbers that back those claims.  But even when numbers are produced, it's still worth asking after the hidden assumptions beneath the statistics.

As an example, this nice article by Virginia Postrel* about gloomy claims that our standard of living is stagnant:

Nowadays, candid and intelligent people--not to mention partisans--tell us that the average American's standard of living has barely budged in decades. Supposedly only the rich are living better, while everyone else stagnates or falls behind.

And today's gloom peddlers can claim to have scientific data on their side. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median real income of a full-time working male rose only 4% between 1981 and 2001, from $44,000 to $45,900 in today's dollars.
[...]
Do we want to know how much money it would take the typical American to buy today what the typical American bought 20 years ago? If so, what about all those things that didn't exist back then--not just iPods and mobile phones but everyday items like wrinkle-free pants, effective sunscreens, prewashed salads-in-a-bag or comfy hotel beds?


*You may need to use BugMeNot to get to the full article.

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